I do not know if the kids feel the same, I for one agree with you, pretty tired of SW but then, I might not have been had I kept loving the franchise.
Agree with point 1 entirely, the magic of building something else out of a set other than the main build is basically gone. Your second point is also accurate. I feel things like Castle might not even resonate at all with today's youth.
Moving away from basic bricks and plates has opened up a lot of opportunities for "experienced" builders but has also closed a lot of doors for people who aren't as experienced or kids. Simply put, more complex building techniques allow for a more "complex" model but also make the parts harder to integrate and use for a regular builder.
You're also right about the minifigures - they used to be regular actors in whatever that set was supposed to be about, not the main focus.
In my language we even used the term "small lego men" when we were kids, they didn't exactly have an associated identity or character behind them.
Licensed themes streamline production and also create free associated content which kids always like.
When I was small I always tried to remake films/movies/shows I liked in LEGO form.
Fully agree on AFOLS.
I'm going to argue that maybe that's true in the first world but in other more "developing" nations toys are being supplanted by phones. A phone is cheaper, feaster, holds the child's attention better and is almost infinitely renewable in terms of what content it can display. Toys can't really compete.
Your posts are accurate and I enjoy reading them.