>Ukrainian-Russian war entered in the five hundred and seventieth day while the highly acclaimed Ukrainian counteroffensivehas been in place for three and a half months. These are the gains #UkrainianArmy achieved during this period:
>1. Zaporizhia front:
>- Lobkove axis: 0,9 sq Km
>- Orekhiv axis: 34,8 sq Km
>2. Donetsk front
>- Velyka Novosilka axis: 15,7 sq Km
>- Southern Bakhmut front: 8,4 Km
>Regarding the following data the counteroffensive lead to the recapture of 59,8 sq aproximately, which is slightly lower than the gains made in the second month of the counteroffensive. Many media outlets are reporting on the Ukrainian army's gains this month, saying that Russian defence lines have been broken and the Russian army is in a difficult situation. However, these sixty square kilometres have again meant multiple losses in the Ukrainian ranks, in a new phase where a greater number of resources have been employed than in previous phases.
>Nevertheless, from an overall view of the front, the front has not changed significantly and the goal of reaching not the Sea of Azov but one of the main locations on the front, Tokmak, seems to be getting further and further away as the weeks go by.
>Even on the eastern front, where the Ukrainian army has managed to recapture two towns south of Bakhmut, very important for a future operation to recapture the city, the situation is no better. It has taken the Ukrainian forces three months to take 41 square kilometres at the cost of heavy casualties. Recall that it took the Wagner forces nine weeks to take both locations. Obviously the greater or lesser speed is not intended to demonstrate effectiveness, but rather to show the resistance that in both cases has been experienced on this front since the end of last year, one of the most deadly in the conflict.
>The heavy attrition suffered by the Ukrainian side makes it clear that it was impossible to achieve the objectives of this summer counteroffensive. While it cannot yet be said that the Ukrainian army has lost its offensive capabilities, it lacks sufficient resources to keep up the pace of combat for several more months, which would be necessary to break through the Russian defence lines. The small gap achieved by the Ukrainian troops on the Orekhiv front has not led to a collapse of the Russian forces as expected, but the Russian resistance remains unchanged.
>It was already mentioned before, but it is necessary to remember that the defenses built during so many months in the southern flank (and that even today are still being built.) had been prepared expressly to stop an offensive of these characteristics, in fact between the main lines of defense there are multiple trenches and defensive lines that make a complex system that cannot be overcome so easily. This palliates the inferiority of Russian troops in these fronts that on the other hand are reinforced with an artillery superiority, making that each locality is defended at the cost of a full destruction, which makes that the Robotino scenario is going to be reproduced again with each locality that the Ukrainian command proposes to recover.
>The forecast for the remainder of the fourth month of the offensive remains the same: the Ukrainian army will continue to wear down, making some advances on the southern and Bakhmut fronts, but without achieving the Russian collapse as happened a year ago in Kherson and Kharkov. On the other hand, the Russian army will remain on the defensive for some more time: part of the mobilized troops will continue to gain experience in rearguard training, while rotations will take place from time to time to avoid attrition of the troops at the front. In fact, the Wagner group is expected to return to the Ukrainian fronts, although no longer as the private military company that we knew, but with little autonomy and closely linked to the army, but with soldiers with great combat experience that will allow them to face the Ukrainian attacks.
Taken from Suriyakmaps telegram channel.