>I don't see how they would take Kahrkov with their current numbers and battlefield situation. The only way I realistically see it without a sizable mobilization of Russians is if UAF and Ukrainan goverment simply disintegrate under the attrition and unrest.
And troubles with logistics. NATO supplies are drying up. Once they have no ammunition to actually fight a war, the rest is mop-up: envelopment and/or pinpoint strikes at barrier troops when identified, followed by mass surrender.
And yes, the Kiev junta is politically fragile. Once NATO is neither seen as a serious help, nor threat, a coup is only deterred by being complicit in too much unpalatable stuff. But then, do they expect the Kremlins to actually care about this?
> My thoughts are along the same lines. Russian army wasn't actually defeated on the battlefield proper in WW1 but rather Russian goverment imploded due to the absolutely fucked goverment and revolutionary movements.
Mostly it just intolerably sucked on strategical level and logistics. When even Brusilov’s breakthrough resulted only in snatching a failure from the jaws of victory, no one with eyes and ears had anything to hope for. With government discredited as much as humanly possible, it was up for grabs.
But also, its internal security was feeble, counterproductive and openly mocked.
>as split between Zaluzhny and Zelenski seem to grow
Zelenski is a puppet whose uselessness is increasingly complete and obvious. Considering the junta had to suppress opposition non-stop, it probably holds mostly due to MAD situation between AFU and SBU.
>Budanovs (chief ukro spook) wife was assasinated, at least according to rumors.
Factions, factions everywhere.